Editorial: Arc Raiders’ Steam Hegemony and the Fortnite Console Lock

The latest engagement data from Circana’s Mat Piscatella for the week ending January 24 confirms a hardening reality in the current meta: breaking the top three is becoming an impossible task for most studios. While the console space remains a playground for established titans like Fortnite and Call of Duty, Steam is currently witnessing a historic run by Embark Studios’ Arc Raiders, which has now claimed the #1 spot for 11 consecutive weeks.

The Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)

• The Unstoppable: Fortnite remains the king of consoles, holding #1 on both PS5 and Xbox.
• The Steam King: Arc Raiders has dominated Steam for nearly three months straight, outperforming perennial giants like Counter-Strike 2.
• The Comeback: No Rest for the Wicked saw a meteoric rise from #322 to #11 on Steam, signaling a massive win for its latest content update.
• New Blood: Riot’s 2XKO made a respectable, if quiet, debut in the top 30 on consoles.

The Steam Power Struggle: Arc Raiders vs. Everyone

We’ve seen "flavors of the month" come and go on Steam, but Arc Raiders staying at #1 for 11 weeks is a feat we haven't seen since the early heyday of PUBG or the most dominant Dota 2 patches. Embark has successfully converted the initial hype into a sustained player base. It is currently fending off Counter-Strike 2 and Marvel Rivals—a significant achievement considering the competitive "hero shooter" fatigue we’ve seen lately.

Marvel Rivals sitting at #3 across all platforms suggests it has finally filled the vacuum left by Overwatch 2’s controversial transition. We believe this isn't just a honeymoon phase; the engagement numbers suggest it has the legs to become a permanent fixture in the rotation.

Weekly Active Users (WAU) Top 10 Rankings

The "Wicked" Rise: Why the Jump Matters

The most shocking stat in this data isn’t the top of the chart, but the climb of No Rest for the Wicked. Vaulting from #322 to #11 on Steam in a single week is a masterclass in how to leverage Early Access updates. While it just missed the Top 10, this level of engagement indicates that Moon Studios has addressed the performance hurdles that plagued its initial launch.

Our analysis suggests that if No Rest for the Wicked maintains this momentum, we’re looking at the next major ARPG mainstay. It is currently siphoning time away from the Diablo and Path of Exile crowds, which is no small task.

Early Verdict on 2XKO

Riot’s foray into the fighting game community (FGC) with 2XKO landed at #17 on PlayStation and #27 on Xbox. For a genre that usually struggles with mainstream retention, these are healthy launch numbers. However, the real test will be the "drop-off" factor. Fighting games typically see a massive nerf to their player counts after the first month once the "casual" players hit the skill wall. To stay relevant, Riot will need to lean hard into their live-service expertise to keep the meta fresh.

Final Thoughts: The Console Stagnation

Looking at the PlayStation and Xbox lists, the lack of movement is concerning. GTA 5, Minecraft, and Roblox continue to gatekeep the top spots, making it incredibly difficult for new IPs to breathe. If you aren't a massive legacy franchise or a viral Steam hit like Arc Raiders, you're fighting for scraps. We believe the console market is overdue for a disruption, but until a new title can offer the same "infinite loop" value as Fortnite, the leaderboard will likely remain frozen.